Putin wants a deal with Trump because his resources are running out, Borovoy says

Image: Alexander Petrosyan

Image: Alexander Petrosyan 

2017/01/28 • Analysis & Opinion, Politics, Russia

Many in Russia and the West have managed to convince themselves that Vladimir Putin is in a position of strength, but the speed with which he has tried to arrange talks with new US President Donald Trump points in the opposite direction, Konstantin Borovoy says. Putin needs a deal fast because his resources are running out.

Konstantin Borovoy (Image: Apostrophe.com.ua)

Konstantin Borovoy (Image: Apostrophe.com.ua)

The person seeking such talks for such a reason is usually in the weaker position and can expect to give a great deal for anything he gets in return, but if Trump thinks Putin is strong, the reverse could be true, with the American leader giving up more than he has to and not getting much in return beyond promises and an era of good feeling.

On the Apostrophe portal, the Russian opposition figure argues the speed with which the Kremlin has moved suggests that “Putin well understands” that the resources he needs to continue to occupy the Donbas “are disappearing” and wants credit for a withdrawal he would be compelled to make anyway.

“Of course,” Borovoy writes, “the Kremlin still has resources.” But a great deal depends on how it chooses to deploy them and whether it can get the kind of foreign loans to compensate for its loss of reserve funds. And it depends on Putin’s ability to keep those around him happy by continuing to offer them more resources even as he takes them from the population.

According to the Russian writer, “many consider that 2017 is the last year when Russia can spend means with the abandon it showed earlier.” It doesn’t have the money to finance large military operations in Ukraine; and consequently, he continues, it has already shifted to the less expensive means of provocation.

Some see Moscow’s move in this direction as a voluntary selection of a tactic, he suggests, rather than the result of the limitations Moscow is increasingly operating under. For such operations, one doesn’t need large amounts of money; and the Russian authorities can continue them for some time.

But when it comes to bigger ticket items like building fortifications or launching a new round of military action, Putin is limited – unless he can break out of the bind he is in because of limits on Russia’s access to credit markets. That is why he wants a deal to end sanctions now; it is also why no one should give him one unless the Kremlin dictator pays a very high price.


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Edited by: A. N.

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  • laker48

    Don’t see them lifted anytime soon. British PM Theresa May said during her ongoing official visit in Washington that the sanctions would have to stay on until all Minsk Agreements were fully implemented and, on another occasion, that RuSSia has to be dealt with from a position of force. Trump is not a sucker and he will drive the hardest bargain possible.

    • Robert

      I hope you’re right. Even _IF_ the Sanctions are ‘lifted’ (HUGE _IF_), vlady is still screwed. It took a long time for the Sanctions to ‘fester’ and manifest into a serious reality. It’s gonna take a _LONG_ time to unravel their effect. I noticed several Ukrainians who – however disappointed in the lack of lethal weapons support by the Obama administration – candidly admitted that they are VERY Grateful for his Sanctions, stating that they (the Sanctions) were “in the long run, far more damaging and effective than some Javelins could ever have been in several ways.” They encouraged Ukraine to rebuild their own Military (and Voluntary) Defense Capability in remarkable ways in an incredibly short time that’s now ongoing like never before. Obama is/was a “Long Term Strategist”. Remember when the Russians were chanting “Bring on the Sanctions”? … My how that has changed…

      • Randolph Carter

        Putin doesn’t seem to reluctant to spend on the military (particularly submarines):

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yasen-class_submarine

        “Initial estimates regarding the cost of the first Severodvinsk-class submarine ranged from US$1 billion to US$2 billion. In 2011, it was reported that the first-of-class (Severodvinsk) unit cost was 50 billion rubles
        (roughly US$1.6 billion) while the second boat (Kazan) will cost an
        estimated 110 billion rubles (US$3.5 billion, in 2011 RUB/USD exchange
        rate). This would make Kazan the most expensive SSN/SSGN in the world
        together with USS Jimmy Carter but not as expensive as the $4.8 billion
        French SSBN Triomphant class”

        Seven Severodvinsk-class subs were ordered, with the last planned to go into service in mid-2017. The Yasen class successor/supplement is in development and dubbed Husky class by the media.

        • Robert

          Yes, true. However, will they also fall to the same fate as the kerch bridge? Will the rf actually last long enough for them to be built? Can he actually afford them?

          • Randolph Carter

            The Severodvinsk (Yasen-class nuclear attack submarine) returned from her first voyage by 6 October 2011. Five more (Yasen class) are under construction and one has been ordered (projected to be complete July 2017). I don’t know what the dwarf’s commitment to the military is, but I’m betting it’s pretty high given that he’s let the rest of the country turn to crap.

            From the Wikipedia article:

            “An August 2009 report from the U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence estimated the Severodvinsk-class submarines to be the quietest, or least detectable, of contemporaneous Russian and Chinese nuclear submarines but is still not as quiet as contemporary U.S. Navy submarines (i.e. Seawolf and Virginia classes)”

            Some good data and diagrams here of the Severodvinsk:

            https://news.usni.org/2014/10/28/u-s-navy-impressed-new-russian-attack-boat

          • Robert

            Clearly, Randolph, the military seems to be vladys’ #1 priority for quite awhile now – and YES(!?!) at the expense of SOooo many Russian domestic Issues. It seems ‘Ignortion’ is a key policy of vlady regarding internal Russian domestic Welfare: Ignore it and maybe it will go away…

            Interesting info you offer, Randolph. Thank you. I always and greatly appreciate being further educated. :) My understanding is that Russia was/is having SERIOUS issues on a variety of fronts with building, constructing and producing most ANYTHING with significant components of advanced technology – especially including military hardware. Everyone already knows they have serious Maintenance issues pretty much everywhere. Allegedly, even their rocket booster production facilities have been substituting substandard materials evidently resulting in some seriously comical and ultimately embarrassing failures.

            Maybe laker48 is correct: vlady is more broke than we know…?

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            Not broke enough, unfortunately…… not yet, anyway.

          • Alex George

            Very good points Robert. Russia will keep impoverishing its own people in order to get more money to maintain its armed forces. Yes, there will be protests, and they will be put down, with whatever level of savagery is required. Most people in the West do not comprehend how savage a Russian government can be against its own people, nor how unashamed about hiding and denying it.

            That will be enough to maintain those forces for a long time. They will be pretty scrappy, but then, they already are. They work well enough for some purposes.

            The real issue is sanctions. Unlike Putin’s sanctions, Western sanctions are not directed against food or the need of the common people of Russia, but against the ability of Putin and the Russian oligarchs to borrow money. If Putin can get sanctions lifted, then the money will start to flow to the Russian armed forces again.

          • Robert

            “… money will start to flow to the Russian armed forces again.”

            Clearly, that’ll $uck. However, I thought that Russia has a fair amount of debt coming due in the short term and for awhile(?). I’m guessing (if that’s true) it won’t matter much to him (vlady. He likely won’t care about high interest rates either for the volatile situations, increasingly decrepit physical and social infrastructure, etc. that would make ANY investment in Russia an exceedingly high risk. Maybe he’s thinking if he negotiates the repayment due dates out far enough in the future someone else will be responsible – not him(?).

          • laker48

            Dwarfstan’s sanctioned corporations have close to $600 billion long-term debt coming due by the end of this year and they cannot roll it out for more than 30 days at a time, at least in western capital markets.

            The second and the most important problem of Dwarfstan is its rapidly declining ethnic RuSSian population plagued and decimated by alcoholism, rampant drug abuse, HIV/AIDS and other STDs, and the same number of abortions as the number of live births. Life expectancy of a newborn ethnic RuSSian male is below 65, while over 35% of ethnic RuSSian man die before they see their 55th birthday. The other peril is very fast creeping Islamisation of the fascist RuSSian Federation. Time works against the dwarf.

          • Robert

            WoW, laker48! That’s not merely a ‘fair’ amount of debt. That’s a SERIOUSLY _HUGE_ amount!?! How the heck did he/they ‘plan’ for THIS to happen precisely NOW?!? That’s over HALF A TRILLION _DOLLARS_ (not Rubble), correct? My calculator says that’s 36 TRILLION Rubbles!?! Hmm, seems he/they are in a Deeper Fiscal Doo Doo Tar Pit than most people realize. Ya gotta wonder if he (vlady) is aware of this, being that he CONSTANTLY seems to ignore his Economist ‘advisors’.

            Honestly, laker48 (I’m guessing there’s no connection with the LA, CA basketball team in your screen-name(?) :), I’m not totally certain what you mean by “…they cannot roll it out for more than 30 days at a time, at least in western capital markets.”, however, it seems to me that DEFAULTS loom seriously and precariously in this simple math scenario(?). If so, won’t this present some rather interestingly precarious and demonstratively detrimental ‘fallout’ to potential RF investors EVEN _IF_ Sanctions are ‘lifted’?

            Ok, the 2nd and more important point you make is what I was referring to with ‘social infrastructure, etc.’. I didn’t realize it’s as serious as you eloquently depict. Numbers of abortions = #’s of Births?!? If that’s True, (I’m not doubting you, laker48), that’s preposterously Primordial, exceedingly unacceptable and absolutely astonishing!?! WHAT kind of ‘society’ is this?!?

            Dear God Almighty … Russia’s not just moving backwards under this vlady guy, they’re attaining, achieving and ‘advancing’ to new Depths never before attempted by Humanity… WHEN are Russians gonna get, assert, display and outwardly Honor Simple Basic Individual Human Dignity and Respect? … and … Do they actually have such Intrinsic Insight, Compassionate Capability, Fundamental Foresight and Humanitarian Hope for a REAL Life … for themselves, their Family and their offspring? … or are they really all just drunken, substance-abusing, Dignity-Denied Sheeple? … There’s GOTTA BE SOME REAL People in Russia … not just those who already left…

          • laker48

            Close to half of the RF’s population live in or around big cities and benefit from government handouts, while the relatively healthy, apart from excessive alcohol consumption, is the population of Siberia. Many Siberian centres have quietly rebelled against the Kremlin dominance for years, but the rebellions are brutally quashed. Here’s the link to the fascist RuSSian Federation’s population clock: http://countrymeters.info/en/Russian_Federation

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            The $600 billion debt refers only to Dwarfstan’s (semi-) state banks and companies, e.g. Sberbank and Gazprom. Hardly ever mentioned is the astronomical debt Dwarfstan inherited as successor state to the USSR, mainly to the US. In 1993 Yeltsin and Clinton agreed on a 20-year moratorium on repaying that debt, which officially ended in December 2013 but which Obama allowed to continue until May 2015.

            With the moratorium now ended, Dwarfstan has to cough up- and the debt is not billions, but trillions of $$$, with no means of paying back.

          • Alex George

            Which won’t matter if sanctions are lifted.

            Anyone who thinks Putin and his oligarchs will care about this debt, or that they won’t find plenty of people to co-operate with them is hopelessly naive.

          • laker48

            “I’m not totally certain what you mean by ‘…they cannot roll it out for more than 30 days at a time, at least in western capital markets’.”
            This means, in financial terms, that they cannot refinance the loans by issuing new long-term bonds in western capital markets, as they can only issue commercial paper with no more than 30 days to maturity in order to finance trading operations and roll it out for another 30 days every month.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            The dwarf will “afford” them by draining first the Reserve Fund, which will be running on fumes by July. After that the Welfare Fund, intended for pensions etc, will be drained. Once that is empty, things will start to get REALLY interesting. How will the Dwarfstanians react when they discover that Medvedev spoke the truth when he told Crimean pensioners “There’s just no money. Hang on in there. All the best.” last summer???

          • Robert

            Clearly, you are more aware of Kriminalin financial details than I, Dag. I can’t wait for the “start to get REALLY interesting” scenarios. :) Regarding how the Russian Sheeple will react, I have no clue as they seem SO suppressed, repressed, depressed and oppressed that they appear to be spineless. Do you remember 5th November exactly 100 years ago? Will there be a repeat? … Are they Spineless Sheeple?

          • gmab

            It’s not reported much in western news media but, there are plenty of skirmishes, protests throughout the regions. The strongest is Siberia & regions around Moscow. Teachers, students, truckers, farmers protesting in growing numbers. The fact that such a low turnout was registered in the last elections (especially in Moscow & St. Petersburg) indicates a growing number of the middle class & elites that are not happy (passive protests). If pensions & other vital services such health care, education, etc. are cut this year or next, this could be the straw that broke the camel’s back. Red Square Maidan is heating up.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            The October Revolution was a small group of thugs who managed to seize power in Petrograd partly because of the apathy of the population. Remember that although they tried, Lenin and his fellow thugs couldn’t prevent the election for the Duma taking place in most of the country. Even with their promises of peace and division of the land among the peasants they only got about 25% of the total vote. I’ve often compared the Dwarfstanians to a bunch of lethargic and apathetic Oblomovs, which is exactly what they are. Because of this the dwarf and his goons can get away with almost anything.
            I wish I were really aware of all the juicy details of Dwarfstan’s financial position! But like the rest of us mere mortals I have to settle for what is published- but even that makes grim reading- or, depending on one’s views, delightful.

        • laker48

          The dwarf is broke.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            Not quite broke just yet, but the end is nigh. According to Tatyana Golikova, Head of Dwarfstan’s Accounting Chamber, the reserve Funds will be emptied in 2017- this will robably be by July. After that, only the National Welfare Fund will be left for the dwarf to plunder. This will mean no pensions for Dwarfstanians, of course. And after the Welfare Fund deing drained, there will be nothing left, unless the dwarf and chums start handing back all the billions they stole from the State Treasury. But how likely is that?

          • laker48

            My ballpark figure for the ultimate collapse and disintegration of Dwarfstan is the time bracket 2019-2025. It takes some time to freeze a dinosaur to death. We may also see a kind of Balkanisation of the fascist RuSSian Federation, where everybody will be shooting at everybody, until it crashes and burns with the stink reaching the High Heavens.

          • zorbatheturk

            It doesn’t take much for Chechens to start killing.

          • Alex George

            UNLESS sanctions are lifted. Then Putin can start to borrow money again.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            That requires someone willing to lend Dwarfstan money. But whoever lends money will expect to be the loan to be repaid, plus interest. And with Dwarfstan approaching bankruptcy plus facing megaclaims- Yukos shareholders, Ukrainian claims for the damage done to the Donbas etc etc- the chance of loans being paid back is zero, zip, nada.

          • Alex George

            There are plenty who will lend the dwarf money. That is why sanctions were applied in the first place.

            I suggest looking at how the GFC happened – the same attitudes still exist, and yes, Putin will get finance if sanctions are lifted.

        • zorbatheturk

          Hope these ones don’t sink.

      • Mephisto

        I think that Obama and Merkel handled Putin quite well. They did not let themselves be provoked by him, they ignored him as much as possible, and implemented sanctions which were very effective in the long run (coupled with oil prices). That is why all the Russian trolls hate Obama and Merkel so much.

        • Dagwood Bumstead

          I disagree. We’re in the current mess precisely because of Merkel and her sidekicks Sarkozy and Hollande. Their attitude towards the dwarf’s aggression, first in Georgia, then in the Crimea and Donbas, has been one of appeasement.Had the hard line advocated by the Baltics, Poland, Sweden and the UK been adopted in 2008 when the dwarf started his war in Georgia we wouldn’t be in the current mess. But Merkel didn’t want to take a hard line, but instead kept spouting “We must talk to Putin.” Ditto when the dwarf illegally invaded and seized the Crimea, and when he started his war in the Donbas: she kept preventing the introduction of sanctions, and only agreed to them after MH17- and then only paltry sanctions that amount to little more than a mild slap on the wrist.
          All she has “achieved” is that the dwarf still occupies part of Georgia and expands the territory he has seized there, the Crimea is still under occupation and the dwarf still wages war in the Donbas. Verily, achievements to be “proud” of.

          • Alex George

            Yes, and you can include the US with Merkel etc in that also.

          • laker48

            Trump will for sure grab Poroshenko by the balls and squeeze if necessary. He may send deadly weapons to Ukraine, but won’t send any money without having full account of how it’s spent.

          • Alex George

            “but won’t send any money without having full account of how it’s spent.”

            Which is exactly what was done under Obama, so what’s new.

        • laker48

          Obama yes, Merkel no. She wants to outmaneuver the US and central and eastern Europe, and eventually strike a deal with the dwarf in order to get access to cheap RuSSian resources. The 1989 Jacques Delors doctrine of squeezing the US out of Europe is still live and kicking. The migrant catastrophe reduced the German-French alliance to rubble, and the very central and eastern Europe has rapidly risen to power due to its policies of keeping the migrant away. Since Trump shares their views, we may soon witness massive US technology transfers and military resources’ deployments in this part of Europe. We need to wait few months, but I believe that Trump’s policies will be clear by the May this year Brussels NATO summit.

          • Alex George

            “Merkel no. She wants to outmaneuver the US and central and eastern Europe, and eventually strike a deal with the dwarf in order to get access to cheap RuSSian resources.”

            What an absurd suggestion. There are certainly elements in Germany who want to do that, as there are in many countries (USA included).

            But Merkel has been one of the strongest bulwark’s against such thinking – she played a major role in ensuring that such thinking has NOT prevailed in Germany, when it easily could have done so.

            “Since Trump shares their views”

            Your blind optimism leads to such an assertion, but in fact we have no idea at present.

            The idea that Trump and the Republicans will make any *significant* increase in resources devoted to defending Eastern Europe seems extremely optimistic – spending priorities have already been outlined which don;t include Europe. These, combined with pledges for lowering taxes and the known preference of Congress to only approve increases where cuts are made in other areas, indicate that increases for Europe won’t happen.

          • laker48

            We’ll soon see what’s gonna happen.

          • Alex George

            Which is a nothing statement because it applies to everything done about anything anywhere in the world.

          • zorbatheturk

            Merkel knows Putin is full of BS.

          • laker48

            Well, do you now see who was right five months ago? :)

          • Alex George

            Yes, me. Thank you.

          • laker48

            Exactly what you think you were right about? You came up with decent analyses at times, but they were few and far between. You were totally wrong about Trump and the US Congress’ actions towards RuSSia and Ukraine.

          • Alex George

            I was totally right about Trump. He has been dragged kicking and screaming to maintain sanctions. And by now nobody seriously doubts that his business interests have been bankrolled by the Russians.

            The change over the last few months has been in Congress, not Trump. And the change in Congress is largely the Kremlin’s fault. Their interference on behalf of Trump became so obvious that virtually every US lawmaker has turned against them. But so far Trump has done nothing against Russia.

            And of course Germany has been exactly as I pointed out.

          • laker48

            You don’t have any proof supporting your allegations. I was right about Trump giving the Poroshenko kleptocracy and Germany hard time. Anything else is hot air. Trump has introduced unpredictability into US foreign policies. This has sent the RuSSians running for the hills, for this has destroyed their monopoly on unpredictability based on predictability and transparency of US foreign policies since the end of Reagan’s presidency.

            What’s gonna happen next is anyone’s guess, since Trump says different things than he tweets, and surprises everyone again by what he eventually does. We’re up for interesting times. I’m looking forward to seeing another blow Trump will likely deliver to the Poroshenko kleptocracy after the stripping Saakashvili of his Ukrainian citizenship. I’m having a lot of fun watching this political cabaret. Trump is a better showman as a politician than he was as a TV show host. :)

          • zorbatheturk

            Ivanka Trump will probably run for Potus in 2024.

          • laker48

            Well, or Donald Jr. BTW, they’re both fluent in Czech and know central and eastern Europe inside out.

          • MichaelA

            they do lots of business in russia

          • laker48

            Any piece of evidence supporting your claim? RuSSian propaganda need not bee quoted.

      • Murf

        Yeah they used to sneer at the sanctions back then.
        Well they ain’t sneering anymore are they?

        • Alex George

          True. Our western sanctions are designed to stop the Dwarf and his oligarch supporters from borrowing money.

          If they can get those sanctions lifted, then Putin will once again have plenty of money to spend on his armed forces.

          • laker48

            RuSSia cannot borrow money at the same interest rate as the US, the UK or Germany. The only way for the dwarf to get financing is to borrow from China against Siberian natural resources as collateral.

          • Andrew Chmil

            You up-vote yourself, you PERFIDIOUS, LYING polak scumbag?

            Just like your EQUALS in MORALS, HONOR, LOYALTY & HONESTY…… The Russo-momgolians…. just as “cunning” & as smart — actually, they ARE a bit smarter…. more patient as well — just as greedy though … Hmm… their priests have sex with women at least…. not altar boys…

          • Alex George

            I disagree. If sanctions are lifted, Putin will have many options for financing.

          • laker48

            Such as?

          • Alex George

            Look at who lent him money before the sanctions – a wide spectrum of international money

            To take a recent example which has evaded the sanctions net, the sale of 19.5% of Rosneft in December. Terms are unknown, Glencore and the Qataris involved, but also somebody else unknown – the trail stops at the Caymans.

            The deal was approved by Putin personally to Sechin, over the heads of the Russian cabinet.

            In a place as opaque as Russia, its easy to do dodgy deals, especially if you control the government. Note that Russia is not actually poor – there are heaps of resources there. If you can find ways of ignoring debt, a lot can be done.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            You know as well as I do that the dwarf can easily cancel such agreements and renationalise the sold-off part of Rosneft whenever it suits him. He has already done something similar with Shell’s Sakhalin project. NOBODY in his right mind would lend the dwarf money, because the chances are it won’t be repaid.

          • Alex George

            And yet they obviously have done so. Nobody is in any doubt that somebody has paid big money for a 19.5% stake in Rosneft. Are they mad? I think so. But did they do it anyway? Yes.

            Your comments about “nobody in their right mind etc” could apply equally well to numerous transactions carried out in the West in the lead-up to 2008. Yes, it was mad, but many entities and funds still did it.

          • laker48

            The encore performances of the 1991 Soviet and 1998 RuSSian plays are around the corner. As it was widely trumpeted at that time, $5 billion of the $17.1 billion IMF loan was stolen in RuSSia upon arrival in 1998, and this is remembered. Don’t see China, Qatar or any shady hedge fund extending loans to refinance $600 billion of RuSSian corporate long-term debt. As Dagwood Bumstead rightfully stated, nobody will throw any good money after bad. So long!

          • Alex George

            “nobody will throw any good money after bad.”

            Your faith in humanity is touching, but not supported by the history of investment. In fact, its safe to say that financiers regularly throw good money after bad!

            “BTW, The Qataris bought an equity stake in Rosneft”

            Not just the Qataris. Someone else has contributed also, and the trail stops in the Caymans. We don’t know who the other investor is. Adn given the opacity of the deal, its possible even that the Qataris are fronting for someone else.

            “Qatar has property rights, while creditors don’t.”

            Sure, until they don’t. Lets not confuse a share issue with serious property rights. And its not just the Qataris – other unknown parties are involved in this.

          • laker48

            Well, Yukos shareholders have won an over $50 billion case against the Dwarfstan government and the collection procedures have already started. US courts have already been petitioned by them and I don’t see the Trump administration preventing any seizure of Dwarfstan’s state assets within all US jurisdictions. There are few Damoclean swords dangling over the dwarf’s neck.

          • Alex George

            Thank you for supporting my point, finally.

          • laker48

            What point, if any?

          • laker48

            Well, sanctions not only haven’t been lifted, but have been increased by Congress, thus preventing any president of the US from lifting them without drumming up 2/3 majorities in the House and the Senate in his favour. :) Dwarfstan and Germany are in deep trouble facing the ultimate breakup of the German-RuSSian gas duopoly in Europe.

          • Dagwood Bumstead

            Anyone who lends money will want to be sure that the loan will be paid back, plus interest. With Dwarfstan’s earning model down the drain thanks to collapse of oil, gas and raw materials prices, Dwarfstan paying back is uncertain at best. NOBODY is his right mind will lend Dwarfstan money under such circumstances, especially as it’s very likely that the money will be used by the dwarf to continue his wars- something that contributes NOTHING to earning money and thus enabling paying back the loan, let alone interest.

          • MichaelA

            that has always been the case
            since chechnya

    • Victor Victory

      I believe Trump will give Putin anything he wants… Putin has Trumps tax returns showing that he has business with oligarchs, If Trump disobeys his master then Putin will release his tax returns and more. That could possibly get Trump impeached.

      • laker48

        I’ve followed Trump in and out since the late 1980s and I don’t believe he will give anybody anything for nothing.

        • Alex George

          He hasn’t “reached the pinnacle of ridicule” at all. Calm down.

          The fact is we don’t know what Trump is going to do, and we certainly don’t know if he will do a deal with Putin that makes the world a much more dangerous place

    • Alex George

      I thought you keep saying we should “wait and see”? Yet you aren’t even prepared to wait until the end of the weekend….

    • Andrew Chmil

      Cc: 4 YOU — LYING, ANTI-UKRAINIAN POLAK & COWARD:

      Marusiu —-
      Hmm…. Poles figure this is a good time to attack Ukraine now…. :)

      Rather TRADITIONAL & typical of their character, is it not?

      Rather like when Poles attacked Ukraine while the Ruski did as well… Post WW!.

      Poles
      wanted to steal the oil fields at that time, etc… Later made an
      “alliance” with Pitliura, then (as usual) betrayed Ukraine &
      IMPRISONED the soldiers thhat fought with them against the Ruski &
      treated them so badly that most starved to death & died from disease
      etc…. Good people eh? Ask them! — THEY ARE ALWAYS THE SACRED
      VICTIMS OF EVERYONE!!! — LIKE THE “precious Jews”….. to hear them
      tell it anyway…

      LYING scumbag **PERFIDUOUS** Pole “laker48” must be as happy as a LYING catholic homosexual polak pig in sh*t…

      What I expected AND PREDICTED about Poles… TRADITION!!!! :)
      WAS I NOT CORRECT? :)

      Cc: SCUMBAG — LYING (“cleverly” IT imagines) “laker48”

      http://www.unian.info/politics/1749537-kyiv-warsaw-relations-depend-on-ukraines-stance-toward-upa-kaczynski.html

  • dangwhat

    Problem with this theory is that Trump feels that he owes Putin a debt for hacking the DNC etc and delivering Trump to the White House. Trump has shown proclivity for giving too much out of gratitude to his “friends”. Putin may be in a hurry in order to take advantage of this before others in government can tamp down Trump’s power, not necessarily in a hurry out of extreme need.

    • laker48

      LOL! This game cannot be played with Trump, given his temper and short fuses. Let’s rest and watch. The game will be for sure interesting and Ukraine won’t be sacrificed. Mark my words!.

      • Scradje

        Duly marked!

        • Dr. Heath

          I wonder what Donna will give her big, tough Russian man in return for, say, easing up on the sanctions. Russia could certainly be struggling. Given the rumours about the true state of Miss Groper’s finances, Donna will be equally eager to ‘make a deal’. A treasonous one, to be sure, but it seems people are slow to realise that the POTUS is Russia’s jailhouse bitch, so she’ll be in the clear over the short term.

      • Alex George

        Why should we mark your words?

        I prefer to deal in fact and analysis, not blind optimism and sweeping assertion

        • laker48

          Well, Trump sends around 10,000 fully armed US Army Reserve troops to Ukraine and this measure alone is a signal for the Dwarf that Ukraine is not part of any Syrian deal. Also Trump’s visit to Poland on the 6th of July and his official meeting with the heads of 12 member states of the Trimarium (the Three Seas Initiative) sends stern warnings to France, Germany and RuSSia, together with the US Senate-sponsored bill legislating all existing and future sanctions slapped on Dwarfstan, as well as sanctioning any Western corporations and individuals doing business with the RuSSian energy sector and participating in any way in the construction and/or financing of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

    • Alex George

      I don’t think Trump cares about debts to Putin, real or perceived.

      But he does care about the future of his family, and the current Russian regime can offer his family open access to any resource, company or contracts in Russia. It will be interesting to see how that affects his thinking,

      • Dagwood Bumstead

        Problem is that Dwarfstan is broke, or almost. So how many juicy contracts will Dwarfstan be able to afford even if the sanctions are lifted???? And that depends on the mood in Congress. Regardless of the deep divisions between Republicans and Democrats I don’t see either willing to allow the lifting of sanctions without a HUGE quid pro quo from the dwarf- a quid pro quo which the dwarf won’t want to give.

        • Alex George

          In that sense, Russia is not remotely “broke”. We have to be careful how we use terms. Russian polity is a kleptocracy – Putin gives away huge fiefs to his henchman, which they may then plunder with a fair amount of impunity, as long as they show full loyalty to Putin and ensure certain amounts keep flowing to the central government.

          It is corruption on such a huge scale even our western corruption indices can’t measure most of it. Putin and other Russian oligarchs are worth billions, even while the Russian state (including its armed forces) are increasingly starved of funds.

          Putin can offer many rewards in terms of state companies, contracts and monopolies on resources, even while his country turns into a third world basket case, particularly to individuals hwo are preared to run companies there.

          • zorbatheturk

            The RuSSian government is close to broke. Minerals extraction taxes and export taxes on oil make up half of ruSSian government revenues. With low oil prices and increasing expenditures on the military, FSB, pensions, bureaucrats, etc. Russia is experiencing what they call ” fiscal squeeze.”

            The oligarchs and siloviki are rich but nobody donates their money to a government. In any case it wouldn’t fill the gap.

          • Alex George

            Sorry, but that’s just not an answer to my points.

            Putin can offer many rewards in terms of state companies, contracts and monopolies on resources, even while his country turns into a third world basket case, particularly to individuals who are prepared to run companies there.

          • zorbatheturk

            The rewards are for the siloviki. Most western companies doing business in ruSSia have been shafted by the Putinator. Russia’s resources belong to Putin and his buddies, as do lucrative government contracts.

          • Alex George

            “Russia’s resources belong to Putin and his buddies, as do lucrative government contracts”

            Exactly my point, and Putin and his buddies hand them out as they choose.

            “Most western companies doing business in ruSSia have been shafted by the Putinator.”

            Again, exactly my point . This has already been done, and it will be done again. And western entities will line up to do business, despite the fate of many of their predecessors

  • Murf

    When you deal with Russia you always and I mean ALWAYS do so from a position of strength.
    Trump doesn’t need to be in a rush to remove them, He has Putin on the ropes so let him continue bleeding him.

    • laker48

      Right. Trump would get the best value for US money if he sent several hundred Javelins and long-range anti-artillery radars to Ukraine right now. Putler has sent to Donbas over 200 modern RuSSian tanks with crews and several hundred self-propelled artillery pieces that are hidden in Donbas urban areas. Wiping them out right now would set the dwarf back several billion dollars and several hundred well-trained RuSSian military personnel.

    • veth

      Trump spoke with his sponsor Putler……He agrees with everything Putler told him, The White House says…..Ukraine is sold.

      • Murf

        “Talks about lifting Russia sanctions premature, – Trump
        American President Donald Trump says it is too early to talk about lifting sanctions on Russia while British Prime Minister Theresa May says the U.K. wants them to continue until the Minsk agreement is implemented.”

        http://en.censor.net.ua/news/425278/talks_about_lifting_russia_sanctions_premature_trump

        Somehow I don’t think this is all apart of Putin’s cunning plot.

    • Mick Servian

      How do you do that when they have such a big nuclear and conventional arsenal.
      If they didn’t the US would have attached ages ago. Syria, Lybia and Yugoslavia are one thing. But China Russia and Iran another.
      Besides this US tactic of fomenting ethnic unrest is pretty bad. Smells like Nazi tactics.

      • Murf

        NUCs are only a small concideration. Putin is an old Cold Warrior he knows the rules of the game and surprisingly enough has scrupulously stuck to them.
        And Rule Number 1 is the US and Russia DO NOT SHOOT AT EACH OTHER.
        PEROID!
        But we can jerk each other around, kill proxies, threaten and try to bully each other.

        • Mick Servian

          Well Ukraine decided to be one of those proxies.

          • Murf

            And Russia over reacted to a minor change in leadership and now they are hemorrhaging cash and blood to the tune of 500 billion dollars and thousands of lives. Not to mention alienating their largest arms supplier.
            Meanwhile the US has a place at the table of the last great underdeveloped market in Europe.
            That’s how you do a proxy war.

          • Mick Servian

            That didn’t make sense at all.
            But yeah the US is ahead.

        • Andrew Chmile

          Serbians just LOVE to suck & @ss kiss Russo-mongolians.

          He is hiding his posting profile again …. like the little LYING ***SERBIAN** —COWARD— as they all are…. only “tough” with unarmed people & baby girls …. the DISGUSTING POS!!!

  • Alex George

    I don’t see Russia collapsing even in a few years. It is a repressive oligarchy and it’s oligarchs have many friends in the west. I think it is very probable that Russia will break up – Putin’s incompetent government seems almost determined to bring that about. But that is many years in the future.

    What we are seeing happening now, as the article rightly points out, is the emasculation of Russia’s ability to make war. The drawing down of the Russian Reserve Fund has come on more quickly than most people were expecting, and the Pension Fund will be raided next.

    And those two funds were really all Russia has to show for the many years of prosperity from high oil prices. All frittered away through rampant corruption and mismanagement.

    • Mick Servian

      Sure buddy.
      Make your mind up.
      Basket case Russia or Evil empire Russia?

      • Murf

        Evil basket case empire.
        When you start cutting pensions to retired military, you getting desperate for cash.

        • Mick Servian

          Yeah. Hugely desperate.
          Supplying Europe and your country with Gas. Which by the way Ukraine couldn’t afford. You’re projecting.

          • Murf

            And Honduras supplies the US with bananas.
            They are still a basket case.
            Just like Russia

          • Mick Servian

            Did you just compare bananas and natural gas?
            The logic on this site. Incredible

          • Murf

            I guess subtly(and not so subtly) implying that Russia is a banana republic went over your head.

          • Mick Servian

            You didn’t subtly anything
            Or you did it really badly.
            Dude i don’t care if you think that Russia is a banana republic.
            That implies there’s a perfect utopian society out there.
            There isn’t.
            People have been saying Russia will go down for centuries.
            But it hasn’t.

          • laker48

            It actually went down at least twice in the 20th century alone.

          • Mick Servian

            What?
            When?
            USSR don’t count. Unless you say Ukraine went down too.
            And if the other is a commie coup and butchering of the Royal family.
            It doesn’t count either.
            If they were down and out. The US would have come in by now.

          • laker48

            Whatever is inconvenient for you doesn’t count. A very selective, RuSSian approach to logic. :)

          • Mick Servian

            Dude. I don’t give a hoot about what racists like you care about.
            Ps. I’m not Russian. Lol

          • laker48

            RuSSian or Serbian, doesn’t matter. The same crap, different piles.

          • Murf

            It never about how much you make.
            It’s how much you spend.
            Unfortunately Putin is pissing away Russia’s future. In a few more moths he will start tapping the pension fund to the tune of 250 million.
            Three cheers for the Russian Mir!

          • Mick Servian

            I remember Putin going to Germany to beg for that first billion from Merkel back when he got into office.
            Yeah things have changed.

          • Murf

            No good deed goes unpunished.

          • Mick Servian

            What?
            How is usury a good deed?

          • laker48

            We may see US drillers around the shelf of the Black Sea Ukrainian economic zone by the end od this year and Ukraine may become a net gas exporter by the end od this decade.

          • Mick Servian

            Yeah you have a point.
            But Ukraine is 26th in gas resources in the world.
            The US is selling coal to Ukraine. One of the biggest coal producers.
            But i wouldn’t invite the US to frack your country side. It’s banned in most western countries.
            Are you ok with polluting your backyard?

          • laker48

            Fracking is not banned and has been applied by oil and gas drillers all over the globe since the 1960s. What scares the katsaps is the combination of horizontal and directional drilling technology with fracking the katsaps don’t have.

          • Mick Servian

            Katsaps?
            Fracking not illegal in Australia? Don’t tell the greens.
            Fracking ruins the environment. Until they find a better way. Im against it.

          • laker48
          • Mick Servian

            What’s katsaps? Lol
            Oh mate. What im against? All of the western world is against it.

          • laker48

            Not your mate, stupido. :)
            Over 60% of oil and gas is extracted by fracking globally and nas been for over six decades. Do your homework first, post later! You’re a pathetic ignoramus.

          • Mick Servian

            Dude.
            Mate is a figure of expression. Of course it doesn’t mean we’re actually mates. Mate. I am so sick of you geniuses on here constantly calling me names.
            I think i might try the same.
            Hey genius. What makes you so clever? What, googling on the net?
            It’s that why you think your special?
            I get it. You come from backwardness. So you have to compensate, eh?
            Good luck compensating for that backward country, backward family and whatever backward loser life you live.
            I feel for you.
            You’ve actually deluded yourself into thinking your racist ass is somehow important. Lol
            Who gives a fuck how much gas is produced? You speak like you own the industry you loser. As if Australia can provide all of China with gas? It’s got it’s hands full with Japan.
            Besides who cares? The only thing you care about is that your neighbors cow dies. How pathetic.
            Your backwards country is about to break and that what you care about?
            Just like the other guy said.
            You’re a broke, backwards loser.

          • laker48

            LOL! Your rant proves your idiocy. I hold a mining and geology related degree and have spent years working in the now defunct Soviet Union, North Africa, the Middle East and Canada on mining and oil and gas related projects. I also happened to work in investment banking on energy raw material investment projects.

          • Mick Servian

            I don’t care about whatever fake degree you racist cretin hold.

          • laker48

            But I don’t care about RuSSian or Serbian ignorami. :)

  • Greg

    I feel trump will sell out Ukraine in a blink of an eye, this man has not morals and is always interested in himself above all other things in life. Ukraine is in a difficult position and the complete lack of tackling corruption has made the situation worst. President Petro has wasted and lost much time. He could be the real Patriot and lead Ukraine to complete freedom, but his lack of leadership will kill Ukraine. Trump is a fool if he thinks he can secure any agreement with Putin to the USA advantage! I still believe Trump risks charges of treason!!!

  • Vol Ya

    Because of low crude oil prices, Russia has started draining its reserve funds, reduced funding for social services and decreased the salaries of government
    workers. Russia’s budget will be balanced when the price is $82 per barrel, according to Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. And that won’t happen anytime soon. More likely we will see bread lines in Russia. And Russia will be going bankrupt since putin has stolen all that he can. That is why Ukraine wants to have nothing to do with the old USSR.

    • laker48

      Concur.

  • veth
    • Dagwood Bumstead

      Another one bites the dust, may many more follow- whether in the Donbas or Syria.

  • veth

    The result of the occupying powers action: only a few pharmacies in Sevastopol sell medications to beneficiaries.

    SEVASTOPOL / AK-YAR (QHA) –
    Some residents of Sevastopol have to spend half of day in queues for subsidized medicines in social drugstores and even on the street, according to Pod Pritselom publication.

    Sevastopol residents express their dissatisfaction with the situation in social networks. For example, Olga Bogdanova stood in line nearly five hours at the pharmacy on the October Revolution Av. to purchase the necessary medicines.

    “It’s just a mockery of the people, especially of our pensioners .. It’s bad enough that people are actually standing on the street, there are no benches, no pews! It’s sad for our elders,” the Crimean wrote, adding that the queue stretched far beyond the pharmacy premises.
    Not all beneficiaries are able to wait their turn and to buy the necessary medicines.

    This situation is explained by the fact that the occupation authorities have not carried out the competition for the purchase of medicines in time. Earlier 18 social pharmacies operated in Sevastopol. 33 thousand beneficiaries reside in the city.

  • NickL

    Sure wish Ukraine (and the rest of Europe) would start fracking to accelerate Russia going broke. We have been doing it in the U.S. for over 60 years without problems.

    • Brent

      You need to travel outside of Michigan “Skippy” to states where fracking is actually done. Or just watch “Gasland” to see the realities of fracking.

      • laker48

        Tap water has been burning in Pennsylvania for decades and i’s not associated with fracking. Shallow-laying coal beds contain methane that seeps to water wells.

    • laker48

      Poland keeps working on its own fracking technology and will likely tap its Europe’s largest shale gas and oil deposits soon after 2020.

  • laker48

    It seems that an Alex George, a German or RuSSian shill, has had almost everything wrong about president Trump’s policies towards France, Germany, RuSSia and Ukraine. :) Poland and the Three Seas Initiative seem to be big time winners. :)