Ukraine “forming new military ‘troika’ with Lithuania and Poland”

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2014/11/26 • Ukraine

Having reluctantly concluded that it will not get the assistance it needs from NATO as a whole, the Ukrainian government is seeking to obtain it by developing military ties with Lithuania and Poland, a move both Vilnius and Warsaw appear receptive to, according to “Nezavisimaya gazeta.”

In an article in today’s issue, Tatyana Ivzhenko, the paper’s Kyiv correspondent, says that was one of the results of the just-completed meeting of Dalia Grybauskaite with her Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko and reflects ongoing discussions with Poland about military supplies as well.

Some in Kyiv are comparing this new “troika” with GUAM, while some in Moscow are suggesting that this is just a cover for NATO to send arms to Ukraine. Neither view, Ukrainian experts say, is entirely justified, arguing the resources of Lithuania and Poland are less than many think and that NATO won’t use such a bloc as cover for sending military aid.

Sergey Taran, a political analyst at the International Institute for Democracy, says that there are three reasons why this new “troika” is not like GUAM. First, he said, he “would not exaggerate the role of the US now” in promoting it. Second, GUAM was “thought up as a union” of countries with common economic and energy issues. This one is about defense.

And third, he says, “Russia could employ a variety of effective instruments against GUAM, but now, it is not having nay opportunities for influencing the ‘troika’ besides intimidation and economic pressure.” Thus, the new group may be more rather than less significant than GUAM has been.

At the same time, Taran argues, the West will not send any military aid via Lithuania or Poland until after Kyiv makes progress on economic reform and fighting corruption, as US Vice President Joseph Biden made clear during his recent visit to the Ukrainian capital.

Sergey Zgurets, a military affairs expert at the Kyiv Center for Research on the Military, Convergence and Disarmament, says that neither Lithuania nor Poland has sufficient resources to help Ukraine in a major way, although Kyiv, given the pressure it is under from Russian aggression, will be happy to get anything from them it can.

He adds that “Western countries will not begin to make use of Lithuania as a cover for supplying arms and technology to Ukraine.” But that does not mean that individual members of the alliance cannot do what they want within the limits of their capacities, and that fact is driving Kyiv’s policies.

The Ukrainian government is trying to meet Western demands for economic reform and fighting corruption, but it has little hope that the Western alliance will provide it with the tools it needs to combat Russian aggression in the east. Consequently, it must rely on itself and on those of its neighbors who share its concerns about Russian intentions.

“Ukraine, considering that the path to NATO will be very long is already seeking to create intermediate unions which will allow it to increase its defense capacity,” Zguryets says. “It is logical that Lithuania and Poland will become its allies” because “like Ukraine, they see Russia as a threat to their security.”

Source: windowoneurasia.blogspot.com

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  • sandy miller

    WHERE’S LATVIA AND ESTONIA…WHAT ABOUT ALL THE OTHER EX-SOVIET COUNTRIES WILL THEY WILLING LET PUTLER TAKETHEM OVER? SHOULDN’T THEY ALL JOING TOGETHER AND PUT PUTLER IN HIS PLACE?

    • Don Casavant

      Great idea Sandy! A coalition of all ex-soviet countries, even though most of them are small and don’t have a lot to give, would show Russia that no one wants to go back to the way things were in the old USSR! It would also show the Russian people that the world is forming sides against them!

    • Steve K

      Lithuania has about 5% ethnic Russian population. Latvia and Estonia are both close to 25%. Most in those populations rely on Russian language news sources direct from Moscow, so their views on the Ukrainian situation differ somewhat from reality.

      • Murf

        “somewhat”?
        That’s an understatement.

  • Paul P. Valtos

    I’m sure that Bulgaria and others have plenty of AK-47’s many manufactured in the former USSR and other military equipment that the Ukrainians could use.

    • disqus60

      Unfortunately it’s the advanced weaponry that’s needed, not the old Soviet stuff. In fact Ukraine has the manufacturing capability to produce their own arms, but not advanced enough to provide effective countermeasures against modern Russian weapons. I doubt Obama, Mr. ” I won’t have flexibility until after the election” will make helping Ukraine a priority without massive public pressure.

      • Milton Devonair

        On one hand, yes, but like Donald Rumsfeld said, “you go to war with the Army you have, not the army you want or the army you might have later”.

        There are enough ATGMs, shoulder fired rockets, MANPADS to put a very big hurt on the apes of russia. If they have intel/drones they can also fire arty/rockets at any armor or groups forming up.

        Ukraine needs to break it down into a gun on gun battle. Look at how the Chechens fried russian monkeys when they went into Grozny. Blow up/disable their armor and when they get out of their armor, kill them. If they are sitting down to drink some of the liquor they stole, someone shoot them, then leave. Plant mines and boobytraps. Make nothing safe for them, have nowhere safe for them.

        High explosives and initiators are really low tech but very useful. Make the apes never want to leave their armor….then blow up/trap their armor. IEDs.

        This will greatly increase the russian bleeding and the world is always a better place when a lot of russian blood is being spilled. It seems like that’s the only way the world can get them to behave and stay in their own country.

        • disqus60

          Agreed, and they’ve been doing that til now, but Russia has poured modern weapons over the border and I don’t like the idea of Ukrainian people fighting against superior firepower.. The sooner this is ended the better. The real war is the propaganda war that is brainwashing future generation of children to hate Ukrainians.

          • Milton Devonair

            True about the real war, the propaganda war. That can be fought by the likes of someone like me, people world wide, people unable to be there on the ground. But no one has any control over the media in russia but the chimpanzee putin. So the only thing Ukraine can control is continuing to raise the costs in bodies on russia’s expansion of their empire/kingdom.

            Ukraine–Crimea, Georgia, Chechnya, etc.–never had a choice when it came to russia’s armed invasions of their countries other than to just surrender or hope nothing bad happens. Ukraine isn’t going to get enough large, high tech weaponry to beat the regular neo-soviet russian army. And it would be stupid to attempt it. The russian apes fled Afghanistan for a reason and the muj didn’t have any tanks or any advanced weaponry that Ukraine can’t get right now.

            If you fight superior firepower with less superior, you will lose. So don’t fight it. The whole premise being low intensity, guerilla warefare is to FIGHT ONLY WHEN YOU HAVE THE ADVANTAGE.

            If there’s a column of ape armor entering the city, they will come in. But once inside the city, they have to leave their armor. And also, their armor is very limited in where they can go. Supporting infantry (ape thugs for the russians) that accompany the armor can be taken out with small arms, RPGs, anti-personnel mines and boobytraps (directional ones like the chechens have been setting up in Ukraine).

            Look at some videos of the fighting in Syria to see how ineffectual their armor/air superiority is. All the weaponry the muj/rebels in syria have is available to the people of Ukraine right now.

            Remember, in a guerilla war, there is no such thing as ‘the rear’–all areas all the time should be a killing zone. Here’s a russian missile hitting a helicopter. Pretty easy, just get two people or more to bring the small missile to that area and wait until the helo comes ‘home’. Once on the ground, they are really easy to hit and can’t escape. This works on trucks filled with troops, supply trucks, restaurants/barracks they are in, etc.

          • Milton Devonair

            Here is your modern weaponry, the tank, fighting a guerilla war. Note the lack of troops outside to protect the tanks? That’s because in an urban environment like that, they’d be killed with small arms fire, booby traps, etc. So it’s just armor going up and down the streets, waiting until they’re shot with an anti tank missile(s).

            And if you can knock the tracks off of a tank, it can’t do anywhere.

            Now you know where the russians will come as they have a disabled tank there that needs help. Set up your ambushes and wait.

            Look at the buildings–that’s the only way the russians and other dictators can fight a war like this….turn everything into rubble like Berlin in 1945.

            But that will never ‘win’ that type of war and indeed, the russian apes are still fighting it in Chechnya. And that type of destruction only turns more and more people against them.

  • Dirk Smith

    The more the merrier. Actually an alliance of the former Warsaw pact countries is warranted based upon the undeniable invasion of Ukraine by fascist russia. And, I hope and support the Moscow viewpoint of NATO shoehorning weapons via Poland & Lithuania is true.