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Moscow “laying groundwork for Ukrainian scenario in Baltics”

Riga, Latvia
Article by: Paul Goble
The Russian government is laying the groundwork for a Ukrainian scenario in the Baltic countries, arguing that the three are mistreating ethnic Russians, that the West has failed to oppose such actions, and that Moscow is compelled under the circumstances to work to protect these members of “the Russian world.”

Konstantin Dolgov, the Russian Foreign Ministry’s special representative for human rights, democracy and the rule of law, advanced that argument in the course of a Regional Conference of Russian Compatriots of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia held in Riga last weekend.

Among Dolgov’s main points are the following:

“The defense of the rights and lawful interests of our compatriots abroad is one of the priority fields of activity of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation — on which we work actively and proactively.”

“Unfortunately, it is necessary to state that an enormous number of our compatriots abroad, entire segments of the Russian World, continue to encounter serious problems in the context of securing their rights and legal interests. One of the most obvious and vital reasons for this is the unrelenting growth of xenophobic and neo-Nazi tendencies in the world and their consequent, deep penetration into the consciousness of the political establishments in many foreign states.

“Among the main concerns in the context of the growth of manifestations of neo-Nazism and xenophobia in Europe, according to international experts and human rights advocates, is the tendency to legalize ultraright parties and the general growth of xenophobia and intolerance in regard to national minorities and migrants with the connivance of law enforcement agencies.

The dramatic development of events in Ukraine clearly attests to the correctness of this thesis. I remind you that one of the first steps taken by the parliament of that country immediately following the anticonstitutional coup and the armed seizure of power in Kyiv in February of this year was the repealing of the law On the Foundations of State Language Policy from July 2, 2012, which established the status of the regional Russian language, 

“Now I would like to focus on one essential and clear instance that, in many ways, might explain European Union’s neglect of the human rights situation. The forces in the EU in this sphere have traditionally focused primarily on third countries … the European Commission stubbornly maintains its unwillingness to intervene in the situation of the massive violation of the rights of the Russian-speaking population of the countries of the Baltic region under the excuse of a lack of jurisdiction. In Brussels they do not want to admit or deal with, for instance, the clearly intentional deviation of the Latvian authorities from the observation of universal human rights norms and standards. 

“We all know well the real scope of the problems with human rights and the rule of law that our compatriots encounter in the Baltic states. This topic is constantly at the center of attention and activity of the Foreign Ministry of the Russian Federation.

“We think it is unacceptable to justify marches of former SS legionnaires in Riga, meetings of veterans of the 20th Waffen SS division in Estonia, or ceremonial, with state honors, funerals for legionnaires/Nazi war criminals from the World War II era. We consider it a shame for Europe and an insult to the memory of those who died defending the world from “the Brown Plague.” Elevating Nazi criminals and their collaborators, responsible for the intentional murder of millions of peaceful Europeans, nearly to the status of “freedom fighters” is the peak of cynicism.

“The problem of the mass deprivation of citizenship in Latvia and Estonia remains a serious one. We consider it an unacceptable situation when a significant portion of the population of these countries lacks fundamental political and socioeconomic rights. We demand that the international community put decisive pressure on the governments of Latvia and Estonia so that this shameful phenomenon will be once and for all eliminated from Europe.

“We will not be reconciled to the creeping restriction of the Russian language that we are observing in the Baltic states. We consider the well-known measures taken by the Latvian and Estonian governments aimed at reducing the status and position of the Russian language to be a gross violation of fundamental, universal norms in the realm of human rights. The official declaration from Riga that a Russian school that has existed on Latvian soil since 1789 must be completely liquidated by 2018 is unacceptable to the civilized world. 

“The international community must decisively prevent the further gross restriction of the rights of the Russian-speaking population of the Baltic countries and the worsening of already alarmingly politicized Russophobia. 

“Respected colleagues! Your role — the role of civic organizations and structures — at the current stage of international development is constantly growing. This is a very important circumstance that must be viewed with proper attention. I wish you all successful work, a martial spirit, and the preservation of the true priorities and strategic vision that unites us all. For my part, I want to assure you that we will, without reducing our effort, continue serious proactive work in the leading international forums with our foreign partners and colleagues in order to give you and your work the most serious support.” (From the translation made by Robert Coalson, the full text of which is available at facebook.com/notes/robert-coalson/k-dolgovs-speech-to-russian-compatriots-in-the-baltic-states-september-13-2014/10152351116608597.)

Three things make Dolgov’s words both significant and disturbing: First, it represents a new ramping up of an old Moscow tactic of trying to undercut Western support for the Baltic countries all of whom are members of both the European Union and NATO by talking about their treatment of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers, a tactic that has often worked in the past.

Second, he explicitly linked the situation in the Baltic countries to what happened in Ukraine after the Maidan earlier this year, pointing out that Kyiv’s decisions on the status of the Russian language there had “unfortunate” and “far-reaching” consequences. Moreover, such complaints about treatment of Russian speakers in Ukraine preceded the Russian invasion.

And third, Dolgov openly encouraged ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in the Baltic states to become more active, promising that Moscow will support them. While some might be inclined to dismiss this as nothing more than a propagandistic exercise, there are unfortunately compelling reasons to think that it is more than that.

Yesterday, Latvian television reported that residents of Latgale, a predominantly Russian-speaking region in southeastern Latvia near the Russian border, are reporting that the Russian embassy in Riga has been recruiting Russian speakers in Latvia, including recently released criminals, to fight for the Russian insurgents in Ukraine (nr2.com.ua/News/Lithuania_and_Baltics/SMI-Latvii-Posolstvo-Rossii-verbuet-naemnikov-k-terroristam-DNR-i-LNR-80005.html).

Pro-Russian groups in Latvia like the “Russian Union” say they “understand those residents of Latvia who want to fight in the Donbas in order to defend Russians there.” But so far they have been careful to say that there are no plans to have them fight on behalf of a similar cause in Latvia itself.

But such reports are inflaming the situation because it is all too easy to imagine how Russians in Latvia to fight on the pro-Moscow side in Ukraine could be redirected to fight for a pro-Moscow side in Latvia itself, especially given Dolgov’s suggestions about the need to defend Russians and Russian speakers there.

One Latvian Russian expressed her fears about this possibility to a Riga television channel. She said: “I think that this could happen also with us! Why are they going there? They must not be released. Someone must stop them. I consider that they are enemies of Latvia.” And she concluded that she found the entire situation “horrific.”

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February 7: The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine

February 7 – 5 Ukrainian military were killed and 26 injured in the conflict area in Donbas in the last 24 hours, – informedVolodymyr Polevyi, deputy head of the Information Center of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during Munich Security Conference. NATO Secretary General has said that the alliance is strengthening collective security system as well as spoke about providing political and practical support to Ukraine on behalf of NATO.

February 7 – The West should not rule out military resolution of the conflict in Ukraine, – said on Saturday in MunichSupreme Allied Commander Europe of NATO Allied Command Operations, Gen. Philip Breedlove, writes Spiegel Online. "We are not talking about sending troops to Ukraine," – said Breedlove. In addition, he called Vladimir Putin's proposals on the resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine "totally unacceptable".

February 7 – President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko has held tripartite talks with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Vice President Joe Biden – "The parties have coordinated further steps and stressed the need for an immediate ceasefire as well as continued dialogue on the implementation of all provisions of the Minsk agreements".

February 7 – Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) has publicized intercepted conversations, which suggest that Russian military are provoking clashes between the ATO forces and militants of "People's Republic of Donetsk". They must be getting new "arguments" ready for Putin's negotiations.

February 7 – Armed Forces and the National Guards of Ukraine have received new military equipment – a modernized armored vehicle "Spartan", equipped with heavy machine gun and "Stugna" missiles.

February 7 – Ukraine is ready to support ceasefire at any time, – stated the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko in his comments to journalists at Munich Security Conference. Whereas the issues of state's federal structure or the autonomy of certain regions (Putin's wishes), may only be decided at a national referendum, not in Moscow or Berlin. All is needed for peace in Donbas is closed borders with Russian Federation and withdrawal of Russian troops, not peacekeeping forces. In his speech at Munich Security Conference, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko presented the passports and military service cards of Russian soldiers who "must have gotten lost in Ukraine" and were detained by Ukrainian military.

Near Debaltseve after attack Russian terrorists appeared "cemetery" Russian tanks (video).

Poroshenko in Munich (20 min)

By Taras Kuzio

Arm Ukraine and force Putin back to the negotiating table

Russia, despite its repeated denials, is sending large quantities of military equipment to the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine along with 9,000 of its troops. Movement of Russian forces, including the Pantsir-S1 missile system, are being tracked by think tanks and western intelligence agencies. Only Russian professional (not conscript) troops and intelligence officers can operate highly sophisticated Russian military equipment – not irregular separatist forces.

Respected Russian military analyst Pavel Felgenhauer has concluded that the aim of Vladimir Putin, Russia's president, is to destroy Ukraine's independence by installing a satrap in Kiev similar to Chechen warlord Razman Kadyrov, thereby ending Kiev's goal of integration into Europe.

Putin reportedly told German Chancellor Angela Merkel that Kiev should deal with the separatists by buying them off with autonomy and money as he had in Chechnya, which to her was unacceptable.

Russia and its separatist proxies have never abided by the September Minsk peace accords and last month tore them up and demand a new agreement that would lend legitimacy to their territorial gains. Military assaults have claimed a growing number of civilian lives, including 40 in rocket attacks on the port city of Mariupol and a Luhansk hospital, with the total number of civilians killed rising to 5, 500, according to the UN. Growing numbers of combatants continue to die on both sides, as illustrated by these gruesome photos of a column of 16 Russian and separatist tanks that was destroyed yesterday.

In the face of the new Russian-backed offensive, pressure on US President Barack Obama to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine is becoming ever more intense. The release of a report for the Atlantic Council of the US by eight US ambassadors calling for military assistance was published along with a crescendo of commentaries in The Times, The Guardian, The Financial Times (here, here andhere), The Wall Street Journal (here and here), The Washington Post, The New York Times, The American Interest, The Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic, The New York Post, The Boston Globe, The Los Angeles Times and Spiegel Online.

This chorus of support was backed by influential former US National Security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. A bipartisan group led by Republican and Democratic Senators Rob Portman and Dick Durbin called for military assistance to Ukraine "to defend its sovereign borders against escalating Russian aggression".

The New York Times reported that the US was considering supplying arms to Ukraine, something reportedly confirmed by Douglas Lute, the US Ambassador to Nato. Ashton Carter, President Obama's choice to become his fourth Defence Secretary, said three days later he was "very much inclined" to provide arms to Ukraine to fight Russian-backed separatists.

Ukraine has been seeking western weapons since the summer of last year but so far has received only non-lethal equipment such as winter clothing, bullet proof vests and night vision goggles. The US did send 20 light counter-mortar radars late last year and, with two-decades of cooperation in Nato's Partnership for Peace programme, is beginning to train four companies of Ukraine's National Guard.

Arguments against the supply of weapons, the Wall Street Journal wrote, "look increasingly naïve". Nevertheless, Canadian commentators have pointed to Ukrainian corruption (see here and here) and the presence of "UkrainianNazis" as a way perhaps to justify the Stephen Harper government's decision not to providie military support. High levels of corruption never stopped the supply of Canadian military equipment and special force trainers to Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan. Although Putin and the Russian media have repeatedly raised accusations of"fascism" in Ukraine, it is the Russian (rather than the Ukrainian) regime that more closely resembles the political science definition of "fascism".

Nato will not send weapons to Ukraine but the UK, Poland and Canada would follow the US lead. President Obama is fighting against his own Democratic party if he sticks with the position of Chancellor Merkel, who continues to put naïve faith in a peaceful solution.

Economic sanctions (helped by falling oil prices) have not discouraged Putin's reckless and bloody intervention in eastern Ukraine. Some of those advocating military support to Ukraine believe – as in the 1980s through weapons supplied to the Afghan Mujahedeen – that only a growing number of casualties will force realignment in Russian policy to that of public opinion, two thirds of which is against intervention in eastern Ukraine.

The Donbas conflict, engineered and sustained by Moscow, is already Europe's worst security challenge since World War II. There have been 40 close military encountersin the air between Russia and the west since the annexation of the Crimea in March last year. Putin believes he is fighting a "Nato legion" through alleged Ukrainian proxies and has always claimed the Euromaidan revolution was a western-backed coup. Russian soldiers dying at the hands of western weapons would return the world to the Cold War of the 1980s, although it remains unclear which US congressman would today step up as the new Charlie Wilson.

Putin will stop his destabilisation of Ukraine and return to negotiations only when western arms equalise both sides on the battlefield.

Taras Kuzio is a research associate at the Centre for Political and Regional Studies, Canadian Institute forUkrainian Studies, University of Alberta and non-resident fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations, School of Advanced International Relations, Johns Hopkins University.

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