Putin misjudged Ukraine 

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2014/09/10 • Analysis & Opinion

Viktor Kaspruk

Putin’s attempts to ‘Transnitriarize’ Ukraine are fully accordant with his plans to turn the Ukrainian state into the Kremlin’s obedient and docile puppet. However, the pro-Russian orientation of part of the population in the Ukrainian East did not emerge by itself. It is a direct consequence of intentional work of the Soviet regime, which tried its best to turn the Ukrainians into part of the so-called ‘Soviet people.’

Though it cannot be said that the Soviets managed to achieve this selection fully. The representatives of the land of miners fought for independent Ukraine on Petliura’s side. We only need to remember the Black Haydamaky regiment, which included Volodymyr Sosiura. Or the modern Ukrainian supporters Vasyl Stus, Ivan, Leonid and Nadiya Svitlychny and Ivan Dziuba.

Another testament to this are the battalions that were formed on Donetsk land, which heroically (frequently better than others) fight for the liberation of their lands from Moscow mercenaries.

However, Donetsk and Luhansk, like Crimea, have always been a problem for Kyiv, for various reasons. Russia’s current invasion is a result of Stalin’s and Brezhnev’s selection and russification of Ukraine. Mass import of Russians onto Ukrainian territories and the intentional export and dissimilation of Ukrainian all around endless Russia are bearing their poisonous fruit today.

After Kuchma came to power, these oblasts became the most criminalized, where those who did not agree with Sovietization of these territories were simply eliminated, and the Kremlin’s policies and the abundance of Russia media created a strong illusion among the population of Donbas and Luhansk oblast that they are once more back to the USSR or, at least, in neighboring Russia.

Essentially, there are enough unsatisfied people in all countries, however only Moscow, with its massive military support, was able to turn part of these unsatisfied people (of which, in reality, there are not so many in these regions) into terrorists.

Putin’s two Achilles’ heels

The future scholars of the last period during ‘Developed Putinism,’ when examining the history of Putin’s actions under the microscope, will wonder: why did he ever crawl to Ukraine with his ‘Russian World’? He could have sat quietly in the Kremlin, robbed Russia and tell stories on television of how he is working so hard, “chained to the galleys,” for Russia’s good. Go to G8 summits and not create any problems for anyone.

The historians will also wonder why Russian elites allowed Putin to invade Ukrainian Crimea, execute the mad idea of mythical ‘Novorossiya’ at any cost, and provoke the Russian Federation’s fallback into the third world.

However, Putin is not at all worried about the fact that Russia, which exists solely on account of the sale of its energy resources, may pay a very high price for ‘#Crimeaisours’ and ‘Novorossiya.’

Obviously, the putinists have had this big national state ‘Russian idea’ for a very long time, and its presentation under the guise of the ‘Russian world’ became the apotheosis of the campaign which aimed to destroy Ukrainian statehood.

However, Putin misjudged. It so turned out that today he has not one, but two Achilles’ heels. The first is, naturally, the economy, the survival of which directly depends on successful energy resource export. The second Achilles’ heel, no less vulnerable, for the Russian Napoleonite became the quality of the Russian population.

This means that when Russia is really able to attack Ukraine an army consisting of millions of citizens of the Russian outback, it will consist mostly of chronic alcoholics.

Essentially, Ukraine’s problems with Donbas and Luhansk oblast only emerged because there were people living there who, after the fall of the USSR, continued to stubbornly lead the Soviet way of life.

And the strive of part of the population to return back to Soviet yesterday, with surrogate vodka for 3,12 and sausage made of God-only-knows-what for 2,20, was constantly supported by Soviet movies from the 1930-1970’s, which are full of primitive Communist ideology, and contemporary low-rate Russian TV series like Menty (Cops) or Dalnoboyshchiki (Truckers).

Yanukovich prepared the springboard for intervention in Ukraine

It is become absolutely obvious that the Party of Regions and its Donetsk leader prepared the springboard for Russian intervention in Ukraine. And had Maidan-2 been delayed by even half a year, Ukraine would have had no chance to protect its sovereignty.

Therefore, after Yanukovich fled Ukraine, Putin decided to hit the most vulnerable part of the Ukrainian society – Donetsk and Luhansk, having provoked a situation that led to a tragedy in this region through his numerous agents on location.

Meanwhile, Donetsk has always been a decoration for those who owned it. Proletariat decorations for a billionaire who got his assets from non-proletariat work. Electoral decorations for the Party of Regions, who pretended that it has over a hundred percent support in Donetsk.

And now Donbas has become a decoration for Russian terrorists. Having turned into a theatrical stage in the hands of the renegades who are using the Ukrainian Near East for their own interests.

Moscow is also waging informational war against Ukraine, it is no secret that essentially this is a war of emotions. In informational war, the enemy doesn’t make you bleed out. They make you feel negative emotions: desperation, fear, hatred and disgust.

It is important to the enemy for all these emotions to work against Ukrainians, against their country and against their future. Ideally, the enemy would want for them to spread this mental disease all around their ranks, unwittingly aiding it.

Therefore Ukrainians could afford emotions during times of peace. Now it is important to stop thinking in categories of peaceful life, as Ukraine is in full-scale war with a nuclear empire.

Whether Ukrainians want this war or not, this nuclear empire does not ask them. And it is impossible to retreat. 23 years after the fall of the USSR, war for Ukrainian independence began. This means that the economy and politics of civilian life are in the past. This means that the economy and politics are aimed at victory: the preservation of the independence of the Ukrainian nation.

Ukraine assertively rejects both of the Kremlin’s options

With his increase of the escalation in Ukraine, Putin is making a choice between two options he finds acceptable: partial control over all of Ukraine or total control over part of Ukraine.

However, him and his closest associates have finally started to realize that their ‘Russian World’ caprice cannot be imposed by them. The majority of Ukrainians will never consent to this.

Therefore Putin, who has been betting on partial control over all of Ukraine, will most likely bet on total control over part of Ukraine. Though he simply doesn’t get the fact that Ukrainians reject both of these options categorically.

However, he is trying to show the Ukrainian leaders by all means possible that the ‘tag’ on the Ukrainian ‘kingdom’ is issued in Moscow.

Here he misjudged when measuring Poroshenko by Yanukovich’s standards. Who was mentally and in his interests fully immersed in the ‘Soviet-Russian’ world. Petro Poroshenko is strictly oriented towards Western values.

It is obvious that ‘DNR’ and ‘LNR’ projects have no support in Donbas and Luhansk oblast. The recall of the main ideologists and harbingers of terrorism in this region, Girkin and Bezler, and then the ‘people’s governor of Donbas’ and head of the mobilization headquarters of the ‘DNR Defense Ministry,’ former neo-Nazi Pavel Gubarev, shows that they have already done their job. Putin removed these failed marionettes and took the reigns into his own hands.

However, this cannot change the situation, as Russia is fighting against the Ukrainian nation, which does not want to return to any form of the former Soviet Union under any circumstances…


 

Source: Radio Liberty

Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina

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  • GenJones

    A description of “Russian elites” should include thuggery and criminality. It is unimaginable that it could be otherwise from what has happened so far.

  • Murf

    I find it inspiring that no matter how how hard Putin hits UA no matter what humiliation they just keep coming right back at him.

  • sandy miller

    Firstly, if Ukraine knew the situation in the east all these years why didn’t they try to change it before? I have to question why nobody thought and was more prepared for what Putin would do when Ukraine threw out his puppet. There should have been pre-planning for all these conditions and now Ukraine is between a place and a hardrock. This sounds just like theduricommunist revolution. When you take on manics like Russia you should have been prepared for outcomes.

    • Danny Smith

      I have often traveled to visit my family in Ukraine, and I was always amazed that they kept the statues to those men that had caused so much pain and suffering to her people.
      To me it seemed that many of the people walked with eyes and ears closed as if they did not wish to know what was happening and did not seem to want to remember what had been done in many parts of the country specially in east Ukraine where many was starved to death and others removed to Siberian gulags to die.

      Maybe this is part of the problem your questions ask?

    • Rassah

      My Ukrainian family and friends who live both inside and outside of Ukraine simply never even considered that Russia would do such a thing. It was thought inconceivable that Russia would openly invade, considering the treaties they signed. I guess everything thought much better of Russia, and was taking by surprise.

  • Jacks Channel

    Find/develope other sources of energy. Its the only way to get rid of Putin and his 1 party Stalinesque government. Then we can work with normal Russians in a multi-party system