Russia “lacks resources for Ukraine occupation”, says military expert

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2014/08/29 • Military analysis

The Russian military has the ability to seize Donetsk and Luhansk if no one provides assistance to Ukraine, Russian military affairs specialist Aleksandr Golts says, but he argues that Moscow “does not have the resources” it would need for “a full-scale occupation” of these and other Ukrainian regions.

In an interview published by the Ukrainian Gordonua.com news agency yesterday, Golts says that at the present time, he sees three possible variants as to how the military and security situation in southeastern Ukraine is likely to develop.

The first would involve a Russian effort to address “certain tactical tasks” involved with providing assistance to separatists in Donetsk and Luhansk via the Azov Sea now that Ukrainian forces have reduced Moscow’s ability to supply them via other routes. In that event, he says, “Russian forces should be quickly withdrawn” once that goal has been achieved.

The second variant, Golts says, would be an effort to occupy “not all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblast but rather the creation of a belt of security along the Russian-Ukrainian border approximately 10 to 15 kilometers from Donetsk to Azov” so that the Russian government would be in a position to support the separatists for a long time.

That could be done by the troops available, but even in March 2014, when Russia had the largest number of forces along the border – some 80,000 men – the Russian general staff told the Kremlin that these forces alone “were insufficient for a full-scale invasion and seizure of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.”

The third variant, Golts says, would involve a decision to “occupy all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and create new borders.”  But if Putin were to take that decision, “the question arises:” with what forces would he do that?  There aren’t enough professional soldiers in the Russian military to do that, and he would have to use draftees.

Using the latter, the Moscow military specialist says, would result in “an entirely different story.”  Such troops have “low levels of discipline, poor preparation and must be changed every six months,” characteristics that would make an occupation impossible even if the seizure of more Ukrainian territory could be achieved relatively quickly.

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  • Murf

    Keep digging Vlad.
    You MIGHT win in the short term but can’t win in the long run.
    Societies traveling through their history come to a fork in the road. one direction leads to peace and prosperity the other leads to misery and oppression. Russia always seems to pick misery and oppression.
    I guess it’s a Russian thing. Which would be fine except they insist everyone around them do like wise.

  • Kruton

    Kill the mutant Bolshevik lunatics! Petro give the volunteers the weapons they deserve and fire some generals!

    • Milton Devonair

      Former combloc gulag nations should be dumping arms into Ukraine……

  • DDJ

    Stalinke has given Ukraine the gift that will keep on giving. Russia has ‘invaded’ Ukraine with Russian troops in the area of Novoazovs’k and Amvrosiivka. Now the Ukrainian ATO forces should hold the line in Donetsk and Luhansk exerting pressure on those AO’s to keep the ‘terrorists’ busy. The ‘main focus’ now should be to locate Russian troop concentrations in the Novoazovs’k and Amvrosiivka AOs and attack them with artillery and grads, killing as many Russian soldiers as possible with each attack (perhaps on a daily basis). The object is to create as many Cargo-200 convoys as possible and to continue to attack only Russian troops and equipment in Ukraine but keeping the Donetsk and Luhansk ATOs ‘controlled’. The Russian Soldiers’ Mothers organization was designated “foreign agents” by the Russian Ministry of Justice yesterday thus fomenting a crack in Stalinke’s hold on the Russian public. This crack should be widened by creating more and more Cargo-200’s to facilitate bringing the focus of the Russian people on the criminal and corrupt activities now being instigated on a sovereign Ukraine. Stailinke and his minions must answer to the Russian people for their collective crimes and misdemeanors and eventually be brought before the Hague as ‘War Criminals’.

    • Kruton

      “War is killing”W.T.Sherman!

  • Dirk Smith

    Come to Ukraine and die! Slava Bandera!!