Putin’s former advisor on Poroshenko in Minsk: Don’t give up Donbas



2014/08/25 • Politics

Illarionov: If President  Poroshenko agrees to give up Donbas to Putin in return for peace, there will be catastrophic consequences for the Ukrainian state

Economist Andrei Illarionov, a former advisor to Vladimir Putin, thinks that Putin is preparing for talks with Petro Poroshenko on August 26 in Minsk by increasing his military presence in Donbas.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia wants to convince the Ukrainian leadership to recognize ‘Novorossiya’ in exchange for a cessation of military hostilities, said economist Andrei Illarionov, a former advisor to the president of the Russian Federation, in a commentary in Gordon.

“After the Minsk talks, Putin expects a compromise from Poroshenko’s side. Putin is now ramping up military intervention and attacks with the aim of convincing Ukraine that it will be cheaper to achieve a truce and put a stop to hostilities now in return for the legalization of  ‘Novorossiya,’ ”  Illarionov says.

According to the expert, agreement to such conditions on the part of the Ukrainian leadership would have disastrous consequences for the entire Ukrainian state.

“I honestly do not know whether Poroshenko and the Ukrainian leadership are ready for such an exchange. But I think that it would have catastrophic consequences both for the Ukrainian state and for the political careers of Ukrainian leaders,” Illarionov says.

“Putin will not compromise and is increasing the stakes on the eve of the meeting. He needs a truce in exchange for ‘Novorossiya,’ like in Transnistria,” adds Illarionov.

Source: gordon.ua, translated by Handzia Savytska

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  • Shirley Damazo

    Merkel might have something to do with this plan, otherwise there was no reason she talked to Poroshenko. Pathetic woman.

  • Nestor Olesnycky

    Typical Russian negotiation. We win or we win? Which would you like, Poroshenko?

    • Dirk Smith

      Much like the “free” election referendum in Crimea.

    • True_finn

      I think typical Ruskies strategy is, -We are bigger so we beat you and take your land or we take your land and rape you later, OK?

      …so better give resistance and say no to putler.

    • Arctic_Slicer

      Russian negotiation: “What’s mine is mine and what’s yours is negotiable.”

  • sandy miller

    I agree…but we need to do a better job of helping Ukrainian army….Lithuania, Latvia, Poland send more troops. Canada send more protective gear. We Ukrainians are collecting and trying to get more help to the troops. Ukrainian government must make sure they’re helping their troops with enough menpower in the East. If they’re not we have to aske why?

  • toioioio

    The ukies, must under no circumstances give up on donbas. You will end up a totally failed state, destined to break up and be accumulated by neighboring countries.

    • Conan Edogawa SCL

      Keep dreaming in Putinomics based on Third World-style economic development based on commodity prices. ; )

      • toioioio

        i dont know about Putin,i only know what i see and i see ukraine giving up on donbas.

  • Jacks Channel

    Okay, enough of this. Putin has to be stopped. Ukraine belongs to Ukraine, not a bunch of disgruntled Russians living there. Putin and Russians need to be given a severe beating.

    Glory to the Heros!

  • Conan Edogawa SCL

    To toioioio Putin-fanboy and wanna-be RuSSian:

    If you think carefully, neither Russia nor USA will define Ukraine’s destiny. It’s Germany. Just think about Poland after 1990. Reunified Germany was the leading force in Poland economic modernization and reforms between 1990 and 2004 when Poland becomes a EU member state. Now, Poland is essential in the supply chain of German industry destined for exports. According to Morgan Stanley, 35% of Polish exports to Germany end up in German exports. That’s explain why German-Polish trade surpassed German trade with RuSSia since the beginning of 2014 according to Deutsche Welle. Polish industry is thriving thanks to German technology transfers to Polish counterparts. That’s why RuSSia will lose in the long term, because RuSSian economy is based in Third World-style economic development based on commodities prices fluctuations. Like here in Chile with cooper and metalic minerals price fluctuations, in 2009, RuSSian economy fell in recession after a sharp drop in oil prices, which also affected gas prices based in oil barrel as reference. ; )

    If you don’t believe me, then take a look at the RuSSian economy situation in the above mentioned 2009, when the oil barrel price fell to US$ 41,58 in December 2008 from US$ 133,9 in July 2008. It was a big hit on Putinomics, and caused a hard hit on RuSSian economy which fell in recession of -5,4% in 2009. That’s happened because of Putinomics based on Third World-style economic development. On the other hand, Polish economy never suffered any recession since 1991, even after the Great Recession of 2009. However, in the future, part of the Polish manufacturing industry based on cheap labor force will become uncompetitive and, since this point, that part of German and Polish manufacturing will emigrate to Ukraine. Why not RuSSia??: Because RuSSia is currently more expensive than Poland, and it will be worse in the future due to the high RuSSian inflation rate that is over 6%, putting strong pressure on wage increases. So, RuSSian economy will NOT be a place to invest for German manufacturing industry. ; ) Because of this, Kremlin/Gazprom-funded RuSSian propaganda will spread baseless fears about unemployment in Poland. Really??. Will it work??. The same was said about Poland (Polandophobia) in 1990s when the nation was in it’s way to become a EU member state. HOWEVER, nothing of that happened and, in fact, German unemployment was very high before Poland becomes a EU member state in 2004. After Poland becomes EU member, German employment saw a strong recovery when unemployment fell from over 12% in 2004 to 5,1% in July 2014. So, when Ukraine becomes a EU member state, it will NOT affect German or Polish employment, because of the stagnant labor force in Europe due to low birth rates. According to FACTS on the economic reality, Germany will need Ukraine in the future, because there NO other country in Europe like Ukraine, so Berlin will have to support Ukraine, no matter if this is NOW or in 2020. German industry will need Ukraine to stay competitive in the world stage. ;D

    Keep believing in Putinomics.

  • Dave Ralph

    Illiaronov is a media troll and he’s the last person Ukraine should be taking any advice from.

    • Nikolai B

      His predictions usually come true though. He understands Putin’s motives better than most.

      • LorCanada

        Hm, perhaps he also represents Putin’s motives better than most – negotiate, give in, give up, give out to Russia. No thanks.

        • Nikolai B

          Illarionov is a staunch Putin opponent. He’s telling Poroshenko what Putin’s motives are, so he can avoid his trap.

  • evanlarkspur

    I agree with Jack. Why aren’t we do doing something to help Ukraine simply drive Russia out? All they need are more advanced conventional weapons on the ground, and the difficulties that are resulting in such damage to civilians and infrastructure would largely disappear.

  • ພັກ ປະຊາທິປະໄຕລາວ

    If Vietnam can stand up and fight China, the Ukraine can stand up to Russia. Freedom and Independence are not FREE.

  • LorCanada

    It is doubtful Poroshenko will give up Donbas because by doing so Ukraine would also be relinquishing its rights to Crimea. President Poroshenko said, “Crimea is, was, and always will be a part of Ukraine”, so that settles any doubt where he stands on upholding its territories. Besides, the Ukraine Nationals have been gaining more ground back so why stop and withdraw? It isn’t logical if you want to defend your country.
    Just my two cents.

  • Mazepa

    I WILL personally cut putin’s throat before we ever give up 1 square meter of OUR DONBAS.

    putin is a dead man….and he knows it.
    Smert mockalyam.