The logic of war

First world war


2014/07/31 • Military analysis

It seems that in the nearest future Ukraine is to expect a new phase of war, from which nobody will be able to hide. And the sooner we are psychologically prepared for it, the fewer victims it will result in.

As of today, nobody has any illusions, that Putin will stop at nothing. Russia, alas, has already passed the point of no return, at which it would have been able to reconsider and agree to compromise. The logic of any antiterrorism operation is such that the more the circle around the mercenaries narrows, the more dangerous they become for civilians. Ukraine’s support on all sides by the Department of State, new sanctions on part of the EU and Japan, the Kremlin’s total fiasco on the international arena, the failure of the military operation in Donbas – all of this put together will inevitably force Putin to seek new forms of escalating tensions in Ukraine. We have seen how Russian special services are apt at preparing such operation, with the example of the “Nord-Ost” musical, explosions at the Volgograd railway station, in the Moscow underground and at the central market in Astrakhan. Let us note, that back then they were dealing with their own citizens, now the FSB and MIH professionals have their hands completely unties: today they have real enemies, the Ukrainians. So there may be explosions in August, anywhere it is possible: at the “Stirol” chemical plant or “Privoz” market, the water pipeline in Dnipropetrovsk or the Kharkiv metro.

The unanimous flight of mercenary leaders from the ATO zone, the attempt to take the Lviv Mayor’s life with a grenade launcher, the murder of the Kremenchug city head and the soon-to-be governor of Poltava, constant signals about the mining of various buildings, the attack on “PrivatBank” in Kharkiv, the activities of intelligence and sabotage groups of the separatists in all of the East of the country are just the visible signals of the new stage of the bloody war. We can no longer doubt that Putin’s associates are thoroughly preparing it, everything is financed by Yanukovich and his Family, and the plan will be executed by dozens of professional terrorists who infiltrate the country on a daily basis. Now they are being sent not into the boiling cauldron of military combat, but the pre front zone and freed territories.

The Kremlin understands that the “Russian Spring” has failed miserably, they were also unable to pull Ukraine apart with the help of the PRD, PRL and other sellout separatists. Putin is so far not ready for a full-scale invasion, despite the constant accumulation of military equipment at the border. Therefore, while losing the military operation in Donbas, the mercenaries will take on peaceful civilians. The logic of how the events will unfold does not give them a choice, other than to start a hybrid war in Ukraine – with mass terrorist acts and large-scale sabotage. Ukrainian special services are quietly talking about how it is best not to aggravate the situation. Even President Poroshenko recently spoke about how the problem is quite serious. He confirmed the fears that terrorist acts are being planned in the country, and demanded that the SSU employ assertive measures to prevent them.

The ATO press center also confirms that the investigation and sabotage groups of the mercenaries have become significantly more active in the recent days. “Their current main task is the collection of intelligence data regarding the locations of the units and regiments of the ATO, the creation of an agent network, as well as the preparation to conduct terrorist acts among the civilians on freed territories,” says the official message. However, it is obvious that they will not stop at Donbas. Deputy head of the SSU Viktor Yagun concluded that the majority of the saboteurs are interested in the regions border the ATO zone, such as Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhya oblasts, to destabilize the situation and disrupt the infrastructure.

One of the leaders of the Kharkiv separatists Konstantin Dolgov also made it clear that the terrorists’ plans are no joke. According to him, “There is a threat to the underground in Kyiv, Kharkiv and Dnipropetrovsk, oblast center railway stations, airports and stadiums.” Most probably, they will start with sabotage in Odesa already in August. However, according to the plans of the Russian intelligence, the wave of terror has to cover all of Ukraine. According to the Kremlin’s plans, the victory of our troops in Donbas has to be marred by fear and victims among the civilians.

Where we want to or not, but we will have to learn to live with fear and make peace with the fact that we are in a state of full-fledged war. While before some managed to flee from reality and pretend that this has nothing to do with them, now it will be impossible to hide from what is happening anywhere: not on the beach, in the supermarket, the metro, the theater. The war will become total and all-encompassing, and combat will not just be the matter of heroic young men at the front or partial volunteers in the rear. And storage item, a suspicious passer-by, a plastic bag are henceforth a potential threat to the lives of hundreds. If the Russian terrorists mined schools and kindergartens in Donbas, it is easy to imagine what kind of evil plans they are ruminating. The nine people who got blown up in Donbas, among which there were children, are just the first victims of the second stage of the undeclared war.

There is no doubt that we will win in the end. The question is what kind of price will we have to pay for this victory. The sooner we learn to live in the conditions of constant threat of terrorism, without panic, emotional exhaustion, infantilism, depression, the sooner we will get the result we won. And this is the logic of war.

Source: Glavnoe
Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina

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  • Murf

    Though times ahead that is for cretin. However the US and EU learned how to deal with this sort of thing. Hopefully they will share Intell with the SBU to stop the new phase of the war.
    If we can get used to the jihadies then UA can deal with the FSB types.

  • Donald Casavant

    I am sorry to say that I have been predicting this for a month. Once the Russian Terrorist are defeated in set piece battles in the east they will disperse by ones and twos to continue the fight in a war of terror against the infrastructure and people of Ukraine. This is standard tactics for this type of war. During WWII France, Russia, Greece and most other countries occupied by the German Army reverted to this type of warfare. Every single person in Ukraine will need to be on guard and report anything or anyone that is suspicious to the authorities. I think that Ukraine can minimize the total number of “Partisans” that would be involved in this action if they seal the borders and forbid any Russians from entering the country. I don’t know if that will be practical. However, there are so many Russian Terrorists already in the country that they will be able to do a lot of damage before they can be found and killed. Putiler will not stop even if the Russian Terrorist in the Eastern part of Ukraine are defeated so the Ukrainian people must prepare for continued bloodshed, chaos, and dirty tricks from Russia

  • LorCanada

    What comes to my mind is the word “vigilance”. No need to dwell on fears and doomsday scenarios. In the reality of war, whether declared or not, simple “preparedness” is the key to combat terrorists’ activities at home or anywhere in the world.

    In a recent airline incident which involved Canada/USA, the mere mention of the word “bomb” by a passenger onboard was sufficient to reverse the flight and return to the airport where he was taken into custody.

    Of course the whole conflict of Ukraine vs Russia could be resolved if a replacement is found for sinister Putin, someone who is more humane, co-operative, mature, and less paranoid. It’s a possibility.