Expect loopholes on Russia sanctions — analyst



2014/07/16 • Analysis & Opinion

The likelihood that tougher sanctions against Russia will be adopted at the EU meeting Wednesday, July 16, is high, but European politicians could delay their implementation, Volodymyr Horbach, specialist at the Institute of Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, wrote in his commentary in Tyzhden.ua, July 15.

“I think Ukraine should expect it (the adoption of sanctions — Ed.) and do everything possible to demand that decision from our European partners. According to my information, during the consideration of the Ukrainian question, the arguments of the Ukrainian side will be heard. I think President Poroshenko will be present personally, and the Ukrainian side will present certain evidence of Russia’s direct involvement in the aggression against Ukraine to the members of the EU Council.  These argument, as intended, should influence the discussions and the final decision, Horbach said.

“If the EU ignores all appeals and pleas for help from Ukraine, including the imposition of economic sanctions against the aggressor, then the EU will lose face decisively, at least in its relations with Ukraine. The absence of a decision on sanctions will only confirm Russia’s propaganda accusations of a double standard in the West. This will be a manifestation of cowardice — when values mean nothing, and (economic) interests everything. This will force Ukraine to behave differently in its conflict with the Russian Federation and to seek support with other allies — I mean first of all with the USA. Ukraine will need to take off its rose-colored glasses when considering the EU and its future membership in the organization,” he added.

Horbach predicts a positive decision for Ukraine at the July 16 session of the European Council on the basis of the situation in the Donbas.

“I think that … the EU Council cannot afford to ignore Ukraine’s appeal. They will have to react in a different way than before,” he said. There can be more expressions of ‘concern,’ alarm,’ deep concern.’ They have had a long time to form a clear picture of the situation we’re dealing with. But, I think that once again the European politicians will look for loopholes. And the decision, which I think will be a positive one, will include postponement for a certain period with concurrent expressions of hope that the Russian Federation will somehow come to its senses by September 1 and stop waging war on Ukraine.

Translated by Anna Mostovych
Source: Tyzhden

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  • Mike Kostelny

    Although it may be true that bullies and bully-nations alike tend to be yellow-livered cowards when push comes to shove, always preying on powers weaker than themselves, it would certainly be a crying shame for the European Union to do absolutely nothing to deter Russia from it’s direct involvement in the Ukrainian Eastern front. A hard swift direct bop in the nose tends to send a lot of bullies running away which is what is needed right now against Russian aggression in the Donbas area (particularly in Luhansk Oblast). Yes, I too agree with the author of this article that it seems that the EU is dragging it’s feet, looking for loopholes and reluctant to say the least to truly offend Putin’s RF (Russian Federation). What needs to be considered is the many bluffs of V.V. Putin. He is the Great Pretender. What he says cannot be believed at face value, only in light of his private agenda. Obviously, there is no loyalty to International Rule of Law (or I should say, whatever is commonly accepted as “International Agreements” is re-interpreted by the Kremlin to be Western propaganda to which Russia no longer prescribes). But Putin does still appear to understand severe economic sanctions. He perhaps does not believe that the EU or the West will actually deliver what they promise (or ‘threaten’) but then again that is part of his bluffing strategy, part of his role as the Great Pretender. What amazes me is that President Poroshenko arranges a future military alliance with Poland and a few other minor countries at his borders, but does not at least prepare for a full scale alliance with the USA (at least as leverage against Russian aggression)?! Turkey accepted an alliance with the USA as their protectorate during the Syrian crisis last year (which protects Turkey not only from Syria but from Russian interference). The fact of that American protection has allowed Turkey now to deny Russian ships from docking at its ports. If the Ukraine should do likewise, not only would the skies (air space) above Ukraine (and the Crimea!) be protected by USA military jets but USA military bases could be built all along the Eastern border that Ukraine shares with Russia. There is no need for RF to claim that NATO forces are too close to Russia. USA forces can act as the interim Peace-keeping force (by invitation of Ukraine and NATO and the EU and the United Nations) until this invasion by Russian troops into Ukraine can be reversed and fully contained. Problem solved. [Then when the Ukrainian military has rebuilt itself so that it can fully defend itself against future Russian aggression, the USA forces can relocate to the Western part of Ukraine.]

    • sandy miller

      Maybe Poroshenko has asked and they won’t do it? Or Poroshenko isn’t serious about what’s happening?

  • sandy miller

    So it’s ok with the EU if more Ukrainians die so they won’t have to lose any money. They’re disgusting…money over life. Ukraine don’t get near that scum. Get together with all the ex-soviet nations and formand economic and military alliance. You should help each other every way possible. You’re all in this together. Forget western Europe they’ve shown their true collors. Boycott all west euroepan products. Get better than them in building cars etc., and compete with the bastards it’s the only way you can get even.